Market Update January 5, 2022

2021 DECEMBER STATS ARE IN
The last stats of 2021 have started rolling in this morning. As anticipated, our seasonal housing dearth will continue into 2022. While December’s stats are relatively uneventful, there are some interesting tidbits that I would like to highlight. Just as I thought that November would take the cake:

• December did break the
  record for lowest homes
  for sale… 50! (down from
  November’s low of 52)
• Median sales price eeked up slightly finishing the year at an all-time high of $705,000. (up after stalling for the past three months at $700,000)
  
• Homes continue to sell over asking. The median sale price was 102.4% over asking. (So a house listed at $700,000 sold for $716,800)

Short and sweet! This trend will
undoubtedly persist into January,
but I expect things to warm up
towards the end of the month

LOCAL FORECAST FOR 2022
In a previous December email, I provided the scatter shot of predictions from major forecasters.

Zillow: ▲ 13.6%
Goldman: ▲ 13.5%
Fannie Mae: ▲ 7.9%
Freddie Mac: ▲ 7.0%
Mortgage Bankers: ▼ -2.5%

Here are some factors that will persist in our local market:

• Inventory will remain scarce
  
  • Lots of buyers remain active. They will absorb any year-over-year increase in inventory
• Interest rates will rise
  
  • A modest increase of interest rates (current 30-yr fixed 3.30% to increase to 3.60%)
    
• Prices won’t drop
  
  • Despite an increase in interest rates, stiff competition and a housing shortage will keep prices elevated.
    
• Younger buyers will be at a disadvantage.
  
  • Homes are more expensive than for previous generations Student loans impact Debt-to-income ratio (mortgage factor)
    
  • No previous home equity to roll into a home.
    
• Buyers need to be prepared
  
  • Buyers will need to continue to be reactive as new listings hit the market.
    
  • All their ducks need to be in a row to have a chance at submitting a winning offer